The Ghost Leg
Surviving Golf
The Ghost Leg
I could have, and should have, labeled this write-up, “The Worst Beat of My Entire Life,” but I wanted to bury the lede a little bit for suspense purposes. This past weekend, despite many positives — namely, the Patriots getting back in the winning column and Drake Maye looking great — was the worst gambling beat I’ve taken in my entire life. Let me explain.
These last few weeks, DraftKings Sportsbook has been running a great “Ghost Leg” promo — if you place a parlay, and only one of your legs loses, DK will still pay out your parlay as if the entire parlay won. It’s a sweet promo that’s been getting a ton of attention, and, at least by me, a lot of action.
Concurrently, friend of the Surviving Golf Brand, Sharps Cover, has been running an “Immaculate 6” pick ‘em style pool, as they do every year. I’m proudly part of that pool this year, and have been, for the last few years. Pick 6 games against the spread in a season-long content, but also get a pretty big payout if you can go perfect in any given week.
Every week, whichever six picks I select in the Sharps Cover pool, I place a six-leg parlay into the DK Sportsbook. Rinse and repeat. Obviously, I rarely hit. Obviously, DK is such a profitable business because most people rarely hit. This week, my six picks: (early window) Lions, Patriots, Bills, Rams, and (late window) Cardinals, Broncos.
Through the 1:00 slate, there was no drama in these picks other than the Patriots (we’ll get to them…). But, as everyone who is reading this likely knows, they pulled through and got the win! So, 4-0 going into the afternoon games. With the Ghost Leg promo, I just needed ONE win out of two potential games to win a massive, massive payday. I have been wanting a new driver, and this parlay could have bought me a new driver.
It looked great. The Cardinals jumped out to a big lead on the Panthers, and, at one point, were up 27-6. The Broncos just needed to win their game by a field goal, and were the superior team going against Daniel Jones and the Colts. I was confident in both games to come in as wins — which would secure me the parlay win as well as the Sharps Cover weekly bonus — even though I only needed one.
Then, the five minutes from hell. In what felt like an instant, the Panthers had scored twice in quick succession. Suddenly, they were driving with a chance to score and bring the game within one score, and, most importantly, cover. The Broncos, however, still looked good. They were up by 2 and were about to drive to kick a field goal to bring the lead to 5, which would secure me the victory. Then…in quite literally three minutes…the Panthers score to bring their game within 5. I was no longer winning that leg of the parlay. BUT IT IS OKAY—the Ghost Leg would keep my win alive! Then…the Broncos line up for a 40-something yard field goal. It beings to drift right, until it smacks the post and bounces back into the field of play. Suddenly, they’re up only 2, and needing to win by 2.5 points. What in the hell just happened?
I went from counting my money, buying a new driver, a new putter, a new push cart and probably something for my kids…to nothing. To steaming mad. To a 2-leg loss in a 6-leg parlay. To just another gambling weekend — looking at some close calls, some what might have been’s, a lot of regret, and most of all, depression. Why is it so hard to pick a few games at a time correctly?
Those that have been in my situation can also likely relate to the following cycle, as well: going from rooting for a team, like the Broncos, to cover a spread, to, then, when realizing that they will not cover a spread, rooting for them to lose outright. I became the biggest Colts fan in the world. Rooting for a team that you don’t really like to win purely out of spite…an interesting mentality. But, sometimes you have to embrace it. Do not cost me money.
So, long story short, a beating from the depths of hell. No new driver. No new putter. No push cart. No champagne lunch. Just misery for another week as we search for the one big win that will change my gambling life…
Six Pack of NFL Thoughts
If I don’t have a full writeup of every game every week — like if I suffer a massive heartbreaking gambling loss — I’ll get a six-pack of thoughts about the week in the NFL regardless. Here’s Week 2 thoughts:
Pre-season, I picked the Bengals to be in the Superbowl because of the genius of Joe Burrow. Admittedly, if I had known that Joe Burrow would get hurt after two games and would be out likely the rest of the season, I may have changed that pick. Somehow, the Bengals are still 2-0. At this writing, we don’t know whether Burrow can possibly come back for any meaningful action this season, but we do know that the Bengals, minus the best quarterback in the league, are not a great team. I’m a little worried about my pick. But…with that said, if Burrow can come back in, let’s say, middle of December, and the Bengals can be in the spot that they’re in seemingly every single year — needing a strong close out to the season to make the playoffs — and Burrow can get back?! Can I still be right? I doubt it, but just saying…
The New England Patriots are back! Kind of! Beating the Dolphins in Miami, even with Brady, was a tough task, so I’m just going to look at the positives. Drake Maye looked like a real Guy, the defense made plays when needed, special teams was both great and awful in a matter of two plays. My new Patriots worry…is Christian Gonzalez slow-playing a soft tissue injury for a contract, or is he the slowest healer of all time? The defense is average, but not great, without him. He’s one of the best young cover corners in the entire league. I am a little worried about why we’re going on almost 2 months with a hamstring pull as a young freak athlete. Of course, I take that there’s a good chance that Vrabel and Co. are mislabeling a more severe injury as to not give the media anything useful in regards to injuries. Either way, would love to get Gonzo back on the defense. Would love to go 2-1 this week, and would love to continue the path to, hopefully, 9 wins this season!
The Chiefs stink, overall. I hate the team, obviously. But I love that, somehow, Patrick Mahomes has avoided the Brady-era criticism of being a “check down merchant” when he has had the lowest Average Depth of Target (ADOT) over the last few years, including this year. I cannot believe he’s escaped even unfair criticism. Is it because Brady was so much better looking? And please, let me revel in the fact that Taylor Swift’s husband quite literally took the ball and threw it to an Eagles player on the goal-line this past week to lock up an Eagles win. Even better than that, let me revel in the fact that the Chiefs’ best defensive player was more concerned about holding Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley to a poor statistical game than he was worried about…you know…actually winning the game! Those are the priorities of a winning franchise! And, throughout all of that, the Eagles continue to win games while still playing bad. Watch out for this team when they actually start doing ANYTHING well on either side of the ball!
My favorite teams to watch on the quad-box, in no particular order: Jaguars — you never know what coaches are going to be yelling at quarterbacks, the talent will never quite peak out, the receivers are dogging it on catches over the middle…and that’s just the beginning! Cowboys — Dak Prescott actually balling out quite a bit this year and we’re officially on 70+ yard field goal watch for Brandan Aubrey! Bucs — Baker Mayfield is always an electric factory. He was just absolutely awesome last night in their last second win against the Texans. Finally, a surprise team… THE BROWNS! What is this team doing! Joe Flacco is always in full “F It, I’m 40+ and on the way out” mode! Fun stuff!
Are the Texans going to…stink? Poor CJ Stroud is running for his life on almost every single play (no exaggeration), and they’re sitting at 0-2 at the bottom of one of the worst divisions in football. There’s no quick fix for an offensive line (see: New England Patriots 2024 Team), so it looks like CJ will be under duress the entire season. I just don’t think a team can possibly be successful without any semblance of competent offensive line play. It’s just insane how bad it is. With the defense always exceptional, the Texans don’t need to score a ton of points to win games…and, yet, they sit without a win. Red flags are fully up. Do not pull a Mac Jones for CJ Stroud.
Caleb Williams stinks. I’m ready to say it, if I haven’t said it already. Caleb Williams is not a good quarterback. Not a good football player. Not a good leader. Ben Johnson, offensive savior and savant, cannot save this man. He is a conductor who writes a very strict and effective script. Caleb can follow that script for a moment. The instant that the script runs out, the team submarines. This week, the Lions embarrassed the Bears with intent and revenge on their minds. The Lions, speaking of which, are still good. One game does not a season make. The Lions will be there in the end, and it looks like they’ll be battling the Packers for NFC supremacy when it comes down to the end of the season.
SURVIVING GOLF FOOTBALL PICKS
Eddy: 5-5 (3-2 Week 2)
Kevin: 4-6 (2-3 Week 2)
Guest: 5-4-1 (3-2 Week 2)
Week 3 Picks!
Eddy:
Cowboys +1.5 at Bears
Patriots +1.5 v. Steelers
Giants +6.5 v. Chiefs
Vikings -3 v. Bengals
Titans +3.5 v. Colts
Kevin:
Cowboys +1.5 at Bears
Patriots +1.5 v. Steelers
Bengals +3 at Vikings
Falcons -5.5 at Panthers
Rams +3.5 at Eagles
Guest (Zach):
Cowboys +1.5 at Bears
Patriots +1.5 v. Steelers
Falcons -5.5 at Panthers
Texans +1 at Jaguars
Bucs -7 v. Jets